The Rise of Newt
On January 20, 1981 when Ronald Reagan was inaugurated as the 40th President of the United States there was a national feeling that someone was in charge again. Throughout the 1980 campaign one could sense that change was coming. The final turning point was the October 28, 1980 debate between President Jimmy Carter and former CA Governor Reagan. After the debate Carter pollster, Pat Caddell, told him what the nation already knew: “It is gone, Mr. President.” Ronald Reagan won 40 states, defeated Carter by nine million popular votes and the Electoral College was 489 to 49.
Something similar may have happened this week with the surge of former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, into the lead in some of the polls for the Republican nomination for the 2012 Presidential race. There is something of the 1980 campaign feel to this in the sense that rather suddenly Gingrich, far back for most of the fall, has the lead in IA and is running even with Mitt Romney in NH. How has this happened?
Gingrich did not just start slow. He shot himself in the foot. Last spring he appeared on Meet the Press and was highly critical of Medicare reforms authored by Paul Ryan–calling it right wing social engineering. After that Gingrich and his wife took an expensive trip to Greece followed by an expensive trip to Tiffany’s. While these are private matters his aides took offense as they felt the former Speaker needed to be raising rather than spending money and attending to the campaign rather than travelling abroad. Several of them left Gingrich for Governor Rick Perry of TX and his campaign. With Perry sliding and Gingrich surging they must be kicking themselves today.
How has Newt Gingrich rebounded? Principally by disciplining himself and by turning in very solid debate perfomances. Clearly he is the brightest man among many bright people on the platform at the debates. And he is an idea man. When he left government he spoke of the fact that without the crush of office he has been able to spend a great deal of time thinking through the issues. His 10 point plan for the economy has been well received.
Another factor is that Republican primary voters are not sold on Mitt Romney. His being on several sides of the same issue is well documented. One suspects he adjusts his positions to fit the polls and that he is a moderate seeking to dress in conservative clothing. As Michelle Bachmann has said, “We do not need to settle this time.”
When asked how long it will take the economy to recover under a Gingrich Administration he confidently said, “It will begin to recover election night if I am elected as people will realize that President Obama is gone.” All this makes Republicans salivate at the thought of the brilliant Newt Gingrich squaring off with the intellectually overrated Barack Obama in Presidential debates.
Roadblocks abound for Mr. Newt. In many ways he remains a Washington insider. He supported liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava in the 2009 special election in upstate New York. In 2008 he appeared with then Speaker Nancy Pelosi on a couch in a green ad on the dangers of global warming. For a smart guy Gingrich has admitted this was stupid. It sure was. And some socially conservative Iowans may have doubts about a twice divorced President.
But all this could pale before the nightmare of another four years of the most radical and dangerous President in our history as well as the most arrogant with no reason to be in face of his incompetence. However it turns out, Newt’s surge does remind one of Ronald Reagan’s in 1980 and 2012 is the most critical election since then. It does promise to be exciting. Bring it on!
Eutychus